Status : Verified
| Personal Name | Maguindayao, Edward Joseph H. |
|---|---|
| Resource Title | A Probabilistic Approach in Reliability Evaluation of Generation System by Considering Variable Renewable Energy Generation as Negative Load with SevenStep Normal Probability Distribution |
| Date Issued | 5 August 2025 |
| Abstract | Increasing penetration of variable renewable energy, aligned with the goals to utilize less fossil fuel to provide power to the system, prompt to revisit the adequacy of existing reserve margin to maintain the reliability of the power grid. This study proposes a probabilistic modeling and methodology for evaluating the reliability of a power grid with increasing penetration level of variable renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, has been formulated by considering the VRE hourly power output as negative load in seven-step normal probability distribution. The methodology was applied to the Luzon grid where simulation results show that the year 2022 LOLE is less than 1 hour per year. Similar results are yielded for forecast year 2050 with VRE penetration from 0% to 40%. However, from VRE penetration of 42.5% to 50%, LOLE increases dramatically from 3.38 hours per year for 42.5% to 806.94 hours per year for 50%. Therefore, increasing VRE penetration worsens the risk of loss of load. |
| Degree Course | MS Electrical Engineering (Power Systems) |
| Language | English |
| Keyword | reliability evaluation, variable renewable energy, loss of load expectation, increasing VRE penetration |
| Material Type | Thesis/Dissertation |
Preliminary Pages
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Category : F - Regular work, i.e., it has no patentable invention or creation, the author does not wish for personal publication, there is no confidential information.
Access Permission : Open Access