Status : Verified
Personal Name Maandal, Gerard Lorenz D.
Resource Title Techno-economic assessment of offshore wind energy in the Philippines
Date Issued 24 July 2019
Abstract This paper presents the technical and economic viability of offshore wind farms in the
Philippines. The analysis was divided into four phases, namely, application of exclusion criteria,
technical analysis, economic assessment, and sensitivity analysis. Arc GIS 10.5 was used to
spatially visualize the results of the study. Exclusion criteria were applied to narrow down the
potential siting for offshore wind farms, namely, active submerged cables, local ferry routes,
marine protected areas, reefs, oil and gas extraction areas, bathymetry, distance to grid,
typhoons, and earthquakes. In the technical analysis, the turbines SWT-3.6-120 and 6.2 M126
Senvion were considered. The offshore wind speed data were extrapolated from 80m to 90 m
and 95 m using power law. The wind power density, wind power, and annual energy production
were calculated from the extrapolated wind speed. Areas in the Philippines with capacity factor
greater than 30% and performance greater than 10% were considered technically viable. The
economic assessment considered the historical data of constructed offshore wind farms from
2008 to 2018. Multiple linear regression is done to model the cost associated with the construction
of offshore wind farms, namely, turbine, foundation, electrical, and operation and maintenance
costs(i.e., investment cost). Lastly, the levelized cost of electricity and break even selling price
were calculated to check the economic viability of the offshore wind farms. Sensitivity analysis
was done to investigate how LCOE and price of electricity are sensitive to the discount rate,
capacity factor, investment cost, useful life, mean wind speed, and shape parameter.
Upon application of exclusion criteria, several sites were determined to be viable with North of
Cagayan having the highest capacity factor. The calculated capacity factor ranges from ~42% to
~50% for SWT-3.6-120 and ~38.56% to ~48% for 6.2M126 turbines. The final regression model
with investment cost as the dependent variable included the minimum sea depth, capacity of
turbine, and the plant capacity as the predictor variables. The regression model has an adjusted
R2 of 91.39%. The regression model was validated with existing offshore wind farms with a mean
absolute percentage error of 8.97%. The LCOE calculated for a 22.707 km2 offshore area ranges
from USD 150.40/MWh and USD 166/MWH. The break even electricity price for offshore wind
farm in the Philippines ranges from PhP 7.64/kWh to PHP 8.86/kWh.
Degree Course MS Energy Engineering
Language English
Keyword Offshore Wind Energy, Wind, Resource Assessement, GIS, Capacity Factor, Cost Modelling, Philippines
Material Type Thesis/Dissertation